Living Alongside Murphy's Law
Meditations in an emergency
"Whatever can go wrong will go wrong, and it will happen all at once."
- Murphy’s Law
Murphy's Law haunts us with the specter of catastrophe - that when things go wrong, they will all come crashing down at the same time.
In our lives, as we take on more complex projects and ambitions, the risks grow exponentially. In a physics experimental lab, we carefully control variables to contain risk and study systems piece by piece. That’s also why the process can be slow and daunting for most people. But real life is more chaotic. The Covid-19 pandemic illustrated this clearly, as our hyper-connected world saw things spiral rapidly out of control. Contagion scenario brought to life before our eyes.
New technologies like AI and synthetic biology have similar cascading potential for both transcendent good and civilization-threatening ill. As Deepmind's Mustafa Suleyman explores in The Coming Wave, containing these technologies is a huge challenge. When you're dealing with complex and powerful systems, unintended consequences abound.
Back to the law playing out in our lives. What do we do in the face of Murphy's Law? First, shore up the foundations. Eat well, sleep well, then do a careful post-mortem on what went wrong. Kind of like a crash analysis. Document in detail where things broke down and find the root causes. Then slowly rebuild, with caution and care. Stress test each component and validate it thoroughly before moving on. Deliberate iteration is key. With each cycle, you build both knowledge and resilience. The rebuilding would feel like academia, it’s slow, but sets a strong(er) foundation.
But never lose sight of your North Star, your purpose. It can act as the ultimate fuel to keep going. It's tempting to swear off risk entirely after getting burned, but a life lived without any risks is a life spent without really acquiring any skin in the game; to me that’s a life half lived. With great ambition comes great risk - but also great reward. The name of the game is that setbacks will come, so sleep with the mentality that Murphy's Law can hit anytime. In fact, if it can hit anytime, then it will definitely hit you sometime along the way, all at once. When it does, see it as an opportunity to grow stronger and tap into the incredible human survival instinct.
Murphy's Law is the universe's way of stress testing our designs and plans. By learning to dance alongside catastrophe, we can emerge better prepared for the next wave. With grit and purpose, each cycle of destruction and rebirth forges us into wiser, more weathered versions of ourselves. The phoenix rising from the ashes.
So keep your eyes on the horizon and your foundations firm. Murphy's Law will come knocking, but each time it does, we have a chance to become antifragile. To thrive in chaos and unleash our greatest potential. The only way out is through.