Convert emotion to equation
Solving Complex Problems with Back-of-the-Envelope Calculations
As humanity faces several complex challenges and civilization threats, its easy to fall prey to believing in a doomsday scenario, and hit an existential block. In light of this, the ability to break down problems into their core components is a superpower. It's the secret weapon that separates the successful innovators from the rest. And the key to unlocking this power lies in a deceptively simple tool: back-of-the-envelope calculations.
"Back-of-the-envelope calculations" refer to quick, rough estimations or calculations done without the need for precise figures or detailed analysis. This term comes from the practice of making calculations on the back of an envelope or any available scrap paper, rather than using formal methods or extensive data. These calculations are often used to get a ballpark idea of the feasibility, scale, or implications of a concept or decision.
In the face of the current climate change crisis, it's easy to get caught up in the doomsday warnings and the emotional turmoil they evoke. Thoughts of civilization collapse and an uninhabitable Earth kept me awake last night, wondering if our efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources are actually digging our own grave. New technologies, such as EVs, require more materials (especially critical materials) to produce, and the mining and refining processes for these materials are often carbon-intensive and ‘dirty’. Will we ever be able to meet the growing demands while mitigating the environmental impact?
This is where the power of back-of-the-envelope calculations comes into play. By reducing the problem to its core components and focusing on the math, we can gain a clearer understanding of the situation and identify potential solutions. David McKay's book "Sustainable Energy: Without the Hot Air" exemplifies this approach. By calculating the energy and carbon costs of existing technologies and comparing them to the energy and carbon costs of new technologies, McKay provides a framework for focused innovation and problem-solving.
My technique for performing these calculations is fairly straightforward:
Identify Key Metrics: First determine the main aspects that define success or impact (e.g., speed, accuracy, energy consumption).
Collect Basic Data: Look for easy-to-find, average figures for these metrics.
Simplify: Use broad assumptions to streamline your analysis.
Do the Math: Apply basic calculations to get a rough estimate of performance or impact.
Comparative analysis of technologies across various fields impacted by climate change can also benefit from this approach. In agriculture, for example, we can compare the energy and resource requirements of traditional farming methods to those of vertical farming. For water resources, we can examine the energy costs and environmental impact of different desalination technologies. By breaking down these problems into simple math, we can identify the most promising solutions and allocate our resources accordingly.
Understanding that solutions vary greatly by location and cultural context is also important. Simple back-of-the-envelope calculations can reveal which solutions are broadly applicable and which require customization. For example, solar power thrives in sunny regions but falls short in less sunny areas. Through our quick calculations, taking into account regional specifics and limitations, we can craft solutions finely tuned to meet the distinct needs of diverse communities. This approach ensures more effective and sustainable outcomes by aligning with local conditions and resources.
Ultimately, the ability to break down complex problems into simple math doesn't require us to be wizards. It requires us to think like a curious child, building our understanding piece by piece, like constructing a tower of Lego blocks. By starting with our core curiosity and deconstructing it, we can weave together a comprehensive understanding of the problem at hand.
While it's important to maintain a sense of urgency and emotional investment in the complex set of challenges which the human civilisation faces today, we must also learn to detach from the panic when seeking solutions. By making use of back-of-the-envelope calculations and breaking down the challenges we face into manageable pieces, we can make the best decisions and focus our efforts on finding effective, sustainable solutions.